China’s commodities imports mostly fell year-on-year in March, the last full month before the Trump administration choked off bilateral trade by imposing punitive levies on Chinese goods.

With the exception of a surge in crude oil imports, the figures show how a slowing economy, and spike in trade tensions with the world’s biggest consumer, had weakened demand for key raw materials even before Trump’s tariff shock in early April. They also capture disruptions to supply caused by China’s retaliatory tariffs on US energy in February and agricultural goods in March.

Declines may have been limited by the government’s stimulus measures, as well as the impulse to stockpile amid worsening relations with the US. On a sequential basis, demand was buttressed by heightened factory and construction activity, which typically accelerates after the lunar holiday. But a potential collapse in exports to America will prove a major headwind in the months to come.

Year-on-year coal purchases fell 6.4% after a sharp decline in domestic prices due to weak industrial demand and brimming stockpiles, which forced importers to halt spot shipments. Similar conditions affected natural gas buyers, with imports dropping 15% and traders forced to resell seaborne cargoes.

But China’s crude oil imports were a standout, spiking 20% to a 19-month high, despite weaker refining activity and the switch to electric vehicles. The increase looks to have been driven by record Iranian flows, as private refiners stockpiled crude due to concerns over potential disruptions from US sanctions.

Among metals, iron ore imports dropped 6.7%, and the likelihood of steel production cuts will only weigh on demand going forward. Purchases of unwrought copper also slipped after cargoes were diverted to profit from higher prices in the US. Increased domestic production continues to crowd out imports, with concentrate shipments to smelters rising slightly.

Meanwhile, metals exporters front-loaded shipments in anticipation of worsening trade frictions. Steel rose 5.7% to a five-month high, while aluminum was steady despite the withdrawal of China’s export tax rebate in December. Rare earths surged 20%.

China’s soybean imports plummeted 37%. It’s the time of year when China switches from US to Brazilian beans, but a slow start to the harvest in South America delayed shipments.

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